“The average atmospheric water vapour content has increased since at least the 1980s over land and ocean as well as in the upper troposphere. The increase is broadly consistent with the extra water vapour that warmer air can hold.”a 2005 paper based on the NASA water vapor data set [called NVAP] showed that water vapor levels had instead declined (with 95% confidence) between 1988-1999. The paper states,
“By examining the 12 year record [1988-1999], a decrease of TPW [total precipitable water vapor] at a rate of -0.29 mm / decade is observed. This relationship is significant at the 95 % but not at the 99 % level [since when do climate scientists insist on a 99% confidence level?]. A downward trend would be intriguing since there should be a positive slope if a global warming signal was present."If the trend in water vapor is negative instead of positive, there is no positive feedback from water vapor and the theory of catastrophic anthropogenic global warming would be falsified. Climate scientist Dr. Roger Pielke Sr. notes that the NASA findings "conflict with the conclusion of the 2007 IPCC report." NASA has not released an update of this extremely important NVAP water vapor data for the past 10 years and does not plan to release the data from 2001 through 2010 or the "reanalyzed" 1988-2001 data until "sometime in 2012 or 2013." However, an online NASA NVAP annual report dated 3/15/11 shows the telling "PRELIMINARY RESULT, NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION" of a continued decline in atmospheric water vapor:
Lower series is over land & ocean, upper series is ocean only |
From the same 2003 poster |
Water vapor declining with 95% confidence BUT NOT 99% |
Global precipitation (an indicator of water vapor) is also not increasing as predicted by AGW theory
Related: Paper: Water vapor feedback is negative, not positive as assumed by IPCC alarmists
http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2011/02/teleconference-will-attempt-to-explain.html
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