Climate Scientist Pielke Sr.: The oceans have not warmed for 7 1/2 years, defying James Hansen's predictions

2011 Update Of The Comparison Of Upper Ocean Heat Content Changes With The GISS Model Predictions

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It has now been at least since 2003 that there has not been significant heating of the upper ocean.

In a post on my weblog on August 25 2008, Josh Willis wrote

“I do agree with you that several years of zero or little radiative imbalance poses some very difficult questions for the modeling community. But I do not think it is grounds for outright rejection of all model results.”

Joules resulting from a positive radiative imbalance must continue to be accumulated in order for global warming to occur. In the last 7 1/2 years there has been an absence of this heating. An important research question is how many more years of this lack of agreement with the GISS model (and other model) predictions must occur before there is wide recognition that the IPCC models have failed as skillful predictions of the effect of the radiative forcing of anthropogenic inputs of greenhouse gases and aerosols.

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OBSERVED BEST ESTIMATE OF ACCUMULATION Of JOULES:

2003 ~0 Joules

2004 ~0 Joules

2005 ~0 Joules

2006 ~0 Joules

2007 ~0 Joules

2008 ~0 Joules

2009  ~0 Joules

2010 ~0 Joules

2011 ~0 Joules through May 2011

[JAMES] HANSEN PREDICTION OF The ACCUMULATION OF JOULES:

2003 ~0.67* 10** 22 Joules

2004 ~1.34* 10** 22 Joules

2005 ~2.01 * 10** 22 Joules

2006 ~2.68 * 10** 22 Joules

2007 ~3.35 * 10** 22 Joules

2008 ~4.02 * 10** 22 Joules

2009 ~4.69 * 10** 22 Joules

2010 ~5.36 * 10** 22 Joules

2011 ~6.03* 10** 22 Joules

2012 ~6.70* 10** 22 Joules



[Hansen's prediction is only off by 6700000000000000000000000 Joules]